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Marie

Chances for Survival

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I was thinking about this the other day, what percentage of chance I'd give various characters to survive Tarmon Gai'don.

 

I've only thought of few so far (there are a lot of characters ok?! *defensive*)

 

Moiraine/Nynaeve: 99.8%

Lan: 50%

Thom: 90%

Rand: 85%

Mat: 100%

Perrin: 99.999%

Egwene: 99.9%

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Moiraine: 100!

 

Rand: 95

 

Lan: 10

 

Min: 90

 

Elayne: 100

 

Aviendha: 100

 

Mat: 100

 

Perrin: 100

 

Siuan: 90

 

Gareth: 90

 

Gawyn: 80

 

Tam: 40

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I'm pretty sure Moiraine is at 100%; she "died" once already.

 

Cadsuane seems destined to go out in a blaze of glory: I'd say 20% chance of survival.

 

Before ToM, I was sure that Min was a goner; she was being set up as a sacrificial lamb. Now I'm not so sure: 50% chance of survival.

 

I see some pessimism regarding Lan's prospects in the first two posts. I would put him above 80%, because Min had a viewing involving a child.

 

The secondary and tertiary characters will be dropping like flies, but I doubt more than one of the primaries will die; Jordan had a well-known reluctance to kill off his characters (something I do not fault him for).

 

There's actually an interview of Jordan on Youtube and the interviewer asks him if he's going to miss his characters once the series is complete. He thought for a second, and said, "No, because in my mind they'll still be kicking around somewhere."

 

That implies most will have happy endings.

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How long has it been since Lan/Nyn were together? It takes a week for sperm to reach the egg and then however many days to reach the womb, and a couple months for it to effect channeling (and some women still menstruate during pregnancy) so...maybe she's already knocked up?

 

It's not that I want Lan to die it just seems he is being set up for some dramatic death scene. :(

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It doesn't take a week for spermies to fertilize an egg if it's already there waiting. They are more like "Wham!" and then it takes a week or so for the fertilized egg to attach to the womb.

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Why does Lan have to die!? Curse you all!! :sob:

 

Mat is a safe bet to pull through, he will not die.

 

I bet Lan will get his dramatic near-death scene, but Nyn will be there to save them and they'll have a touching moment.

Lan is too awesome to die! Death & him are like lovers, it won't hurt him! :(

Edited by AshSnow

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I think Lan will die, blaze of glory types. I give him 20% survival chances and the likelihood that Nyn already has a bun in the oven. :sob: I don't want him to die.

 

Moiraine will survive, since, as Red pointed out upstairs, she's already died once, so 100% there.

 

And *sigh* I think Thom will too: 90%, so I can have 10% hope!

 

Nynaeve: 100% because of the child. Unless she dies in childbirth...

 

Caddy: 20%. She's got on too many people's nerves :P

Mat: 99%

Perrin: 100% Is he important enough to kill?

Min/Elayne/Aviendha: 99%

Rand: 50%

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I put Lan at 99%. He knows he'll die fighting the Shadow and plans on it. Whenever a WoT character knows something, the opposite happens. He'll probably live to be 120

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The only characters I would say have a low chance of survival are Cadsuane (40%), Lan (50%) and possibly Min (70%). The rest either seem to have prophecies to fufill or a reason to keep them alive. Some of the random Aes Sedai that we've been introduced to once or twice are probably gonners though.

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